Wang Siran, deputy director of the Jinrui Futures Research Institute, said when looking forward to the non-ferrous metals market in 2018, across the world’s major economies, the economic growth of Europe and the United States is driven by investment and foreign trade. Chinese real estate investment has a huge marginal impact on global economic growth. Therefore, Chinese real estate investment The decline will lead to a slight weakening of the economy.

"Copper prices lead copper mine capital expenditures for 1-2 years, and capital expenditures lead copper mine production capacity changes by 5-8 years. The logic since the end of 2016 is that copper mine production capacity will become bottlenecked after 5 years, and demand will continue to grow. Prices must The rise to stimulate the commissioning of new copper mines has formed a bottom support for copper prices. The logic behind the continued price rise is the continued improvement of macroeconomic expectations and the introduction of scrap copper import policies.” In response to the law of copper price trends, Wang Siran said, “Copper prices show 6-10 Years of volatility, and the bull market lasts for a short period of time, and the bear market lasts for a long time. The bear market usually lasts for 5-7 years, and the bull market lasts for 1-3 years. The reason is that the long-term copper mine production capacity can be replenished in large quantities after the price rises, and once it is put into production, the supply The rigidity is stronger, and it takes a longer time to clear the capacity."

"Copper prices will oscillate at a high level in 2018. The core fluctuations of the LME in March for the whole year are 6000-7500 US dollars/ton, and the main core fluctuations of Shanghai copper are 48000-60,000 yuan/ton." Wang Siran suggested that unilateral operation focuses on grasping the rhythm, and the market is right. There are strong expectations for the tightening of overseas economy and scrap copper imports. If subsequent overseas economic data gradually weakens, scrap copper approvals are issued or actual imports are higher than expected, there will be opportunities to sell short on rallies. In terms of arbitrage, the import restrictions on scrap copper will aggravate the tension in domestic refined copper, especially during the peak consumption season when domestic destocking will have a good opportunity to reverse arbitrage.

New energy vehicles have always been a hot spot in the market to analyze the impact of copper demand. In this regard, Jinrui Futures researcher Tang Yufeng said that from the perspective of recent hotspots, although policy factors such as the “Belt and Road” and new energy vehicles are good for copper consumption in the long term, in the short term, the base is still too small to drive this year. The overall copper consumption has grown substantially, and the part of the power grid that the market pays little attention to has potential to be tapped.

Jinrui Futures researcher Li Li analyzed the impact of scrap copper on the refined copper market. She believes that focusing on the hotspots of copper scrap, three issues need to be focused on: one is how much scrap copper is in the market; the second is how to assess the magnitude of the reduction in scrap copper imports; and the third is how scrap copper affects the balance and price of refined copper. Affected by environmental protection policies, the import of scrap copper has been reduced and the consumption of refined copper has been shifted. Under the current price system, the refined copper market is in short supply. Therefore, higher prices are required to stimulate the outflow of scrap copper inventory to make up for the market gap.