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This year copper or high oscillation?

Update:2018.01.16
Summary:

Looking forward to the non-ferrous metals market in 201 […]

Looking forward to the non-ferrous metals market in 2018, Wang Siren, deputy director of Jinrui Futures Research Institute, said that taking into account the major economies in the world and the economic growth in Europe and the United States being driven by investment and foreign trade, the real impact of China's real estate investment on global economic growth is enormous. Therefore, Decline will drive the economy slightly weaker.

"Copper Leading Copper Capital Spending 1-2 Years with Capital Expenditure Leading Copper Production 5-8 years The logic since the end of 2016 is that after 5 years there will be a bottleneck in copper capacity and demand will continue to grow and prices must be Rise to stimulate the commissioning of new copper mines, which formed the bottom of the support for copper prices later continued to rise in the logic of the macro is expected to continue to improve as well as the introduction of scrap copper policy. "For the law of copper prices, Wang Siran said," the price of copper 6-10 Year volatility cycle, and the bull market continues to be short with a longer bear market, usually with a bear market lasting 5-7 years and a bull market lasting 1-3 years due to the large amount of long-term copper capacity that can be replenished after price increases and once put into operation Rigidity is stronger and takes longer to clear capacity. "

"The price of copper will fluctuate at a high level in 2018, with core LME fluctuations of 6,000-7500 US dollars / ton for March and 48,000-60,000 yuan / ton for Shanghai Copper." Wang Silan suggested that the unilateralism should focus on grasping the rhythm and on the market Foreign economy and the policy of tightening the import of scrap copper have very strong expectations. If there is a gradual weakening of the overseas economic data, the issuance of scrap copper or the actual import volume higher than expected, there will be a chance of short selling. Arbitrage, because of scrap copper import restrictions, will exacerbate domestic tight copper situation, especially in the domestic peak season will have a good anti-set opportunities.

New energy vehicles have always been the hot spot on the market to analyze the impact of copper demand. In response, Jinrui futures researcher Tang Yu-feng said that from the recent hotspot, policy factors such as "One Belt and One Road" and new energy vehicles, although long-term good copper consumption, but in the short term, due to the base is too small, it is difficult to drive this year Overall copper consumption has risen sharply, while there is potential for the power grid sector, which is less focused on the market.

Li Rui Jin Rui futures researcher for scrap copper on the impact of refined copper market were analyzed. She believes that focusing on scrap copper hot spots, the need to focus on three issues: First, how much scrap copper market inventory; Second, how to assess the magnitude of scrap copper imports reduction; Third, the balance of copper scrap copper and the price impact. Affected by the environmental protection policy, the scrap copper imports have been reduced and the consumption of refined copper has shifted. As a result, the refined copper market is in short supply due to the existing pricing system. Therefore, higher prices are required to stimulate the outflow of scrap copper stocks to make up for the market gap.